Predictability of Geomagnetically Induced Currents using neural networks

Lotz, S. I. (2009) Predictability of Geomagnetically Induced Currents using neural networks. Masters thesis, Rhodes University.




It is a well documented fact that Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC’s) poses a significant threat to ground-based electric conductor networks like oil pipelines, railways and powerline networks. A study is undertaken to determine the feasibility of using artificial neural network models to predict GIC occurrence in the Southern African power grid. The magnitude of an induced current at a specific location on the Earth’s surface is directly related to the temporal derivative of the geomagnetic field (specifically its horizontal components) at that point. Hence, the focus of the problem is on the prediction of the temporal variations in the horizontal geomagnetic field (@Bx/@t and @By/@t). Artificial neural networks are used to predict @Bx/@t and @By/@t measured at Hermanus, South Africa (34.27◦ S, 19.12◦ E) with a 30 minute prediction lead time. As input parameters to the neural networks, insitu solar wind measurements made by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite are used. The results presented here compare well with similar models developed at high-latitude locations (e.g. Sweden, Finland, Canada) where extensive GIC research has been undertaken. It is concluded that it would indeed be feasible to use a neural network model to predict GIC occurrence in the Southern African power grid, provided that GIC measurements, powerline configuration and network parameters are made available.

Item Type:Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:Space weather; geomagnetism; neural networks
Subjects:Q Science > QC Physics > Geomagnetism
Divisions:Faculty > Faculty of Science > Physics & Electronics
Supervisors:McKinnell, L. (Dr)
ID Code:1604
Deposited By: Nicolene Mvinjelwa
Deposited On:23 Apr 2010 10:19
Last Modified:06 Jan 2012 16:20
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